Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 19.050619 23.016704 27.418743 32.641198 38.640946 45.290648 53.189748
2025-02-16 13.296249 18.459945 24.823798 33.126733 43.546326 56.056615 72.066670
2025-02-23 9.879926 15.358831 22.695593 32.986349 46.764163 64.270916 87.851806
2025-03-02 7.471489 12.874001 20.663387 32.291580 48.725496 70.593183 101.273237
2025-03-09 5.928232 11.223280 19.380390 32.236182 51.258344 77.558303 115.703216
2025-03-16 4.395999 9.206666 17.151450 30.386006 50.886294 80.312270 124.378369
2025-03-23 3.765345 8.555809 16.915258 31.449406 54.756229 89.156029 141.893332
2025-03-30 3.018789 7.508515 15.827228 30.964215 56.131850 94.358622 154.377742
2025-04-06 2.701777 7.224026 16.007165 32.559074 60.843010 104.732990 174.869615
2025-04-13 1.988768 5.918286 14.090096 30.274966 59.008050 104.928414 180.092732
2025-04-20 1.707158 5.505108 13.810165 30.857262 61.948217 112.667856 197.074232
2025-04-27 1.499138 5.214378 13.725353 31.772110 65.492156 121.512913 216.111320
2025-05-04 1.262077 4.818081 13.434540 32.421735 68.915305 130.834683 237.156838
2025-05-11 1.057716 4.450649 13.157828 33.099439 72.511176 140.771415 259.894366
2025-05-18 0.846550 3.976752 12.535768 32.972973 74.581239 148.222911 278.926997
2025-05-25 0.652695 3.466517 11.708689 32.279398 75.476544 153.655445 294.828653
2025-06-01 0.522896 3.117134 11.210154 32.224085 77.571830 161.253019 314.631591
2025-06-08 0.366325 2.561171 10.009632 30.374479 75.885046 161.959199 322.705077
2025-06-15 0.317008 2.444991 10.038978 31.437554 80.230214 173.814344 350.444421
2025-06-22 0.242962 2.155292 9.472098 30.952511 81.271921 179.599844 367.795945
2025-06-29 0.219679 2.123224 9.715500 32.546884 86.874078 194.176661 401.197185
2025-07-06 0.142949 1.699306 8.538190 30.263473 83.809919 192.125018 404.827251
2025-07-13 0.118393 1.591672 8.433842 30.845591 87.163299 202.574150 431.387471